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Who is driving the ups and downs?
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The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart is one of the most insightful charts in on-chain data, breaking down capital flows by coin age. It distinguishes between different groups, such as new market participants and medium-term holders, to observe capital migration. At the peak of Bitcoin price at $106,000, the red band saw a surge in activity, indicating FOMO-driven buyers swarming near the top. Since then, activity in this group has cooled significantly, returning to levels consistent with the early to mid-stage bull market.
This bull phase is somewhat unusual. After breaking the all-time high, prices did not immediately surge higher, but instead pulled back. This could indicate that we are simply forming a higher low before entering the steeper part of the exponential phase. If we take the average of the 9-month and 11-month exponential phases of past cycles, we expect the bull market to peak around September 2025, assuming the bull phase resumes.
S&P 500 and Bitcoin Correlation Chart analysis shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a global recession grow, continued weakness in traditional markets could limit Bitcoin's ability to rise in the short term.
Key on-chain metrics such as MVRV Z-scores, Days Value Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows show healthy and cycle-consistent behavior, as well as signs of accumulation by long-term holders. However, significant macro uncertainty remains in the market, which is a key risk to watch.
This cycle is slower and more uneven than past ones, but it has not broken the historical structure. If further deterioration in traditional markets can be avoided, Bitcoin appears ready for the next leg up, which could peak in the third or early fourth quarter.
