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When will the Fed cut interest rates?
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It’s hard to say. The only certainty is that the timing of the Fed’s interest rate cut has become the focus of market attention, and Trump’s policy may be intended to reshape the dollar system through economic “detoxification”, but the cost may be short-term recession and long-term risks.
Trump's policy may be aimed at a deeper goal. The U.S. federal debt has reached 36 trillion U.S. dollars, and interest payments have become a fiscal burden. According to the Congressional Budget Office, interest costs will reach 952 billion U.S. dollars in fiscal year 2025, and may soar to 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars in 10 years. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 100 basis points, the government can save 300 billion to 400 billion U.S. dollars in interest each year, which is an irresistible temptation for Trump.
The Fed’s decision is crucial. Whether the June and September rate cuts predicted by Barclays can be achieved depends on the evolution of inflation and employment data, and the success or failure of this gamble remains unknown.
A potential Fed rate cut could stimulate economic growth by lowering borrowing costs, boosting investment, and revitalizing consumer spending, creating a more dynamic market environment.
While concerns about a Trump-style recession persist, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut could serve as a timely catalyst, injecting liquidity into the economy, stabilizing markets, and paving the way for renewed growth and investor confidence.
Bad
soon
Have no idea
