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What logical support and potential variables might Trump’s new encryption policy have in the context of AI development?
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I think Trump is buying time for the dollar. His new crypto policy is in line with his overall strategy, so this series of actions may seem out of line, but if we put them into a larger strategic framework, we will find that they are not isolated operations, but constitute a complete set of policy deployments with internal logic. Its core goal is to use crypto infrastructure to reshape the global accessibility and investability of the dollar, support the international status of the dollar, and thus buy time for the return of US manufacturing and capital repricing.
The core dilemma of the global innovation financing mechanism, including the United States, is becoming increasingly prominent. In the past two decades, the financing of high-tech startups in the United States has mainly relied on three channels: the Silicon Valley venture capital system, the Nasdaq IPO, and various government research grants and innovation incentive programs. But all three have their own limitations: VCs gradually focus on late-stage projects, and the bottleneck of early financing is becoming increasingly serious; the IPO threshold is too high, and many technical projects are eliminated before they are mature; and government incentives are often inefficient and have a long cycle. An important member of Trump's crypto team is SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce, who is the proposer of the Crypto Haven plan. She has been committed to restoring a certain legitimacy of ICO by creating a new regulatory framework. Not returning to the original wild growth state, but a new ICO system based on transparency + approval + disclosure.
If the Trump team wants to promote the legalization of stablecoins, RWAs, and new ICOs, it must also build a set of auditable and accountable compliance infrastructure on the chain. This is not only a technical challenge, but also a governance challenge. Once the implementation is out of control, any case of on-chain US dollars participating in terrorist financing may lead to fierce opposition to the entire new policy, or even its failure.
Over the past decade, many countries have promoted several rounds of attempts around encryption technology, and the results have generally been less than ideal. Therefore, most countries seem to be waiting and watching Trump's new policy, and perhaps they are also hoping for a lucky break, that is, to see if Trump is bluffing.
We may be standing on the edge of a system-level innovation—a critical structure that may lead to a technological singularity is taking shape. Trump may not fully understand the underlying logic of this technological evolution, but his policies may have pioneered an experiment in rewriting the underlying rules around the world. These policies may not be fully implemented, but they have already triggered a reassessment of the global financial technology and policy architecture.
