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What is your view on Trump's tariff policy?
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Just about Trump is hard to predict. Overall, while Trump's tariff policy may have delivered some short-term benefits, its long-term effects remain uncertain. Its impact on the global economy is likely to be more complex and should be assessed within a broader context.
I think the current financial market is facing an extremely delicate situation. Trump's efforts, including raising tariffs and cutting unnecessary spending, are essentially conducive to the sustainable development of the United States in the long run, but in the short term, they will inevitably cause rising inflation, rising unemployment, and weakening of the dollar's hegemony.
On one hand, the inflation rise caused by tariffs could further impact the U.S. economy, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at some point. On the other hand, if the economy remains resilient, an unwarranted rate cut could further push inflation higher. Trump's proud sunny strategy may lead to an inescapable vicious cycle.
The Bitcoin Reserve Act signed by Trump clearly states that the bulk of the reserve comes from the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins held by the previous US policy, and additional purchases of Bitcoin need to be made in a "budget-neutral" manner, which means that even if additional Bitcoins are purchased, the fiscal burden cannot be increased. The outside world has speculated that the government may choose to sell some assets to purchase additional Bitcoin. So it's really hard to say.
Trump's tariff policy has sparked widespread debate in both economic and international political circles. I think that tariffs help protect U.S. domestic industries, particularly manufacturing, reduce dependence on foreign markets, and apply pressure on other countries to engage in trade negotiations, potentially leading to more favorable trade deals. Additionally, tariffs could incentivize domestic companies to improve their competitiveness.
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