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Market crashes! ETH drops below $2K – End of the bull run or just a temporary correction?
Despite the news of the U.S. establishing a strategic crypto reserve being seen as a major bullish signal, the market has undergone a sharp correction. $ETH has dropped below $2,000, and BTC has also pulled back significantly. Is this just a market correction, or is the bull run coming to an end?
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Corrections are normal in every bull market, and data suggests this is a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a trend reversal. CBBI, a key bull run index, remains below 90—historically, Bitcoin peaks above this level. Unless we see extreme speculative behavior and major indicators hitting peak levels, it's premature to call the bull run over.
Ethereum is in a serious situation. Its price has fallen below $1,800 this morning. An address holding 65,000 ETH is facing liquidation risk, and another whale has sold 25,800 ETH for risk aversion, with a loss of $31.75 million. Yuga Labs executives warned that if the market enters a bear market, ETH may fall below $1,500, or even reach the $200-400 range, which is consistent with the 90% maximum retracement in historical bear markets.
Key metrics like AHR999 and Bitcoin’s RSI suggest that the market hasn’t entered an overheated phase. Historically, bull market peaks occur when AHR999 exceeds 4 and RSI surpasses 90—both of which haven’t been reached yet. This indicates that the market still has upward potential.
The Altcoin Season Index is at a historically low 14, meaning that BTC is still leading the market. In past cycles, altcoins significantly outperformed BTC at the peak of a bull run, but that hasn’t happened yet. This suggests that the market is still in a Bitcoin-driven phase, not the euphoric final stage of a bull run.
BTC dominance typically declines near bull market peaks as capital shifts into altcoins. However, current data shows BTC dominance is still rising. Additionally, the Golden Ratio Multiplier suggests a bull market top near $150K, which BTC hasn’t approached yet, implying more upside.
Be positive
TO THE MOON
